Capital1 tops PVL Draft odds after revised lottery formula boosts All-Filipino weight
Many were wondering how Capital1 ended up with a higher probability of landing the first overall pick in the 2026 PVL Draft over Galeries Tower.
The answer lies in a change to the draft lottery formula, which was approved by all teams ahead of the 2025–26 season.
In a league release on Monday afternoon, the PVL explained that, unlike in the past two seasons, teams agreed to place greater weight on the league’s crown jewel tournament — the All-Filipino Conference.
Under the revised system, 75% of the computation comes from the All-Filipino Conference, while the preseason PVL on Tour accounts for 10%. The Reinforced Conference makes up the remaining 15%.
(C) PVL Images
As a result, the Solar Spikers, who finished ninth out of 10 teams in the All-Filipino Conference, posted a weighted average of 6.75 in the season finale. They also recorded 1.1 in the PVL on Tour and 1.2 in the Reinforced Conference, for a total of 9.05.
(C) PVL Images
On the other hand, the Highrisers placed 12th in the PVL on Tour (1.2), 11th in the Reinforced Conference (1.8), and eighth in the All-Filipino Conference (6.0), finishing with a total weighted average of 9.0.
ZUS Coffee and Choco Mucho registered weighted averages of 8.5 and 7.6, respectively.
Still, having the highest probability does not guarantee the top pick.
(C) PVL Images
Last season, Nxled held a 40% chance of securing the first overall selection but ultimately fell to fourth due to the luck of the draw.
Capital1, despite only having a 30% chance, still landed the top pick, which turned out to be Bella Belen.
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